At UFC Auckland this Sunday, the first Kiwi bout on the main card sees surging CKB kickboxer Brad Riddell looking to make it two from two in the UFC as he takes on dynamic Russian striker Magomed Mustafaev.

Riddell will look to make it two from two after his victorious Fight of the Night debut against gritty Australian Jamie Mullarkey, whereas Mustafaev will attempt to re-ignite his pre-2016 win-streak with a fourth UFC victory on Sunday.

The Match-Up

Mustafaev (14-2-0) has twice the professional MMA experience of Riddell (7-1-0) and has faced higher level MMA competition, with four UFC fights to Riddell’s one. Unlike most of his Russian ilk, Mustafaev is known not as a wrestling specialist but as a ferocious striker, possessing an arsenal of standing attacks including stance switching to set up the southpaw liver kick, as well as throwing spinning elbows and back-kicks.

Mustafaev is a heavily muscled and powerful man, fighting as high as 185lb during his career. He was riding a 13-fight win streak before he was submitted by Kevin Lee in 2016. During this fight, Mustafaev was consistently outwrestled before being submitted via rear naked choke in the second round.

Brad Riddell is most famous for his prodigious striking pedigree, having beaten some of the world’s elite kickboxers, including a win over 10-time World Muay Thai Champion: ‘John’ Wayne Parr and being the World WKBF Middleweight Champion. He has some 70 professional kickboxing fights on his resume before he transitioned to the UFC. He is an elite striker.

Riddell made his UFC debut on October 6^th, 2019 with a three-round destruction of Jamie Mullarkey, for which both men received a $50k bonus. In the fight he showed that his MMA game is well-rounded and that he is not just a striker to be easily taken down and dominated.

Stats

Bearing in mind that Riddell’s UFC stats are based only on one fight, the things that stand out here are both the output and accuracy of Riddell being superior, but also his striking defence being much higher.

Additionally, it should be noted that Mustafaev has achieved zero takedowns from four attempts during his four-fight UFC tenure, whereas Riddell is 1/1 in this regard. This is worth noting, not because it is likely that Riddell will take Mustafaev down, but because it is likely that this fight will be contested solely on the feet.

Betting Odds

The TAB currently has the odds of the fight as follows: Brad Riddell (2.08) vs Magomed Mustafaev (1.69).

Keep an eye on the above link during fight week, as the odds and options are likely to change closer to the fight.

The Verdict

The bookies have priced this one based on MMA experience, instead of looking at the overall picture. Mustafaev might have more MMA experience at a high level, but this fight will almost certainly be contested on the feet.

Given this, it is hard to bet against the 70-fight pro kickboxing veteran Brad Riddell. When it comes to striking, there is nothing that the brawny Mustafaev will bring to the cage that Riddell has not seen and dealt with before.

The elite feinting and counter-attacking skill of Riddell will allow him to set a trap and land on Mustafaev with the unforgiving 4oz gloves of MMA increasing the damage dealt.

Prediction: Brad Riddell via late TKO.

Please note that the above is provided for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute betting advice.