In the main event of UFC Auckland this Sunday, perennial lightweight contenders Dan ‘Hangman’ Hooker (19-8-0) and Paul ‘the Irish Dragon’ Felder (17-4-0) square off over five rounds.

The two fighters are ranked numbers six and seven in the UFC Lightweight rankings, with both men hoping to accelerate their title runs with a win on Sunday leading into a top-five opponent subsequently.

The Match-Up

Hooker (#7 lightweight) is 9-4 in the UFC and is coming off a pair of impressive wins over Al Iaquinta and James Vick which pushed him into the top 10 at lightweight. Of his 19 professional MMA wins, only two have come via decision, with ten by knockout and seven by submission.

Hooker is known primarily for his striking, despite the submission victories. He was the 2013 King in the Ring 72kg Champion and has a technical striking acumen, as evidenced by his three-round shutdown of Iaquinta at UFC 243 last October.

Felder (#6 lightweight) is, interestingly, also 9-4 in the UFC and coming off a pair of decision wins over Edson Barboza and James Vick. He is somewhat less of a finisher than Hooker; however, still only has six decision wins in his professional MMA career, with ten coming via knockout and one by submission.

An X-Factor in this fight is that while Paul Felder has divided attentions, being a fighter and a commentator simultaneously, Dan Hooker is all-in on being a fighter. When Paul Felder is working behind the UFC desk, Dan Hooker is putting in sweat at the gym.

Common Opponents: Edson Barboza, James Vick, and Ross Pearson.

‘MMA Math’ is a tenuous way to predict fights, but these three men have all faced both Hooker and Felder.

Barboza went 1/1 with Felder across a pair of very close fights; however, when Barboza fought Hooker he stopped the Kiwi in round three with strikes.

James Vick lost a decision to Paul Felder in February 2019 but was stopped via first-round KO by Hooker in July 2019.

Ross Pearson beat Paul Felder via split decision in 2015; however, Dan Hooker beat Ross Pearson via second-round KO in 2017.

Stats

Comparing the stats of both fighters across 13 UFC fights apiece, it is clear that on paper, Dan Hooker has the advantage here. He stands one inch taller than Felder and will enjoy a four-inch reach advantage.

Additionally, he has higher striking output, accuracy, and defence than Felder, in addition to having better takedown accuracy and defence.

The finishing rates of both men mean that this one is unlikely to go the distance.

Betting Odds

The TAB currently has the odds as follows: Dan Hooker (1.67) vs Paul Felder (2.11).

Keep an eye on the above link later in the week as the odds and options will change closer to the fight itself.

The Verdict

The bookies have this one right. The statistical advantages of Dan Hooker coupled with the fight being his first UFC headliner in his home city mean that he is likely to win this bout. His incredible finishing rate also indicates that it is unlikely to go the distance.

A common line of thought to the contrary is that both men faced Edson Barboza recently, with Felder getting the victory and Hooker falling in the third round via blunt force trauma. However, ‘MMA Math’ rarely works, and besides, many people saw Felder’s split decision victory over Barboza as unjustified.

Dan Hooker’s momentum is undeniable, after his quick knockout of James Vick and his three-round shutdown of Iaquinta. The latter fight against Iaquinta is the only one of Dan Hooker’s UFC victories which has gone the distance; all others have been finishes.

Prediction: Dan Hooker via TKO round 4.

Please note that the above is provided for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute betting advice.